The following report contains details for forecasting of CIC. All models were foreasted on 2020-07-02.
The model selected for CIC is Seasonal ARIMA. This can be changed in the config file. The latest forecasts for this model are summarized below:
| TargetDate | Forecast | Variance |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-03 | 4614671 | 6730998745 |
| 2020-07-04 | 4613960 | 14854429596 |
| 2020-07-05 | 4614210 | 23814274801 |
| 2020-07-06 | 4614667 | 32928844309 |
| 2020-07-07 | 4612713 | 42098097353 |
| 2020-07-08 | 4608139 | 51279837256 |
| 2020-07-09 | 4606697 | 60465299848 |
| 2020-07-10 | 4605984 | 70344143344 |
| 2020-07-11 | 4605277 | 80292879422 |
| 2020-07-12 | 4604611 | 90280759301 |
| 2020-07-13 | 4603954 | 100275691584 |
| 2020-07-14 | 4601928 | 110273100953 |
| 2020-07-15 | 4603530 | 120271075180 |
| 2020-07-16 | 4604316 | 130269217694 |
| 2020-07-17 | 4604466 | 139616472067 |
| 2020-07-18 | 4604516 | 148900758173 |
| 2020-07-19 | 4604528 | 158149891552 |
| 2020-07-20 | 4604532 | 167392712187 |
| 2020-07-21 | 4604533 | 176633315011 |
| 2020-07-22 | 4604533 | 185873412376 |
The plot below shows forecasts with prediction intervals. The darker bands indicate an 80% prediction interval, while the lighter bands indicate a 95% prediction interval. The observed data is shown in black
The forecasts below correspond to the equally weighted average of all models and the best 2 models (ETS (non-seasonal), Seasonal ARIMA) .
| TargetDate | Forecast | Variance |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-03 | 4618640 | 10123551798 |
| 2020-07-04 | 4612358 | 22281508656 |
| 2020-07-05 | 4609352 | 36034389884 |
| 2020-07-06 | 4605241 | 50513235592 |
| 2020-07-07 | 4594612 | 65201883421 |
| 2020-07-08 | 4588726 | 80189592162 |
| 2020-07-09 | 4594715 | 95611061629 |
| 2020-07-10 | 4602935 | 111554786867 |
| 2020-07-11 | 4604875 | 127686668300 |
| 2020-07-12 | 4608361 | 144060040373 |
| 2020-07-13 | 4607554 | 160173199433 |
| 2020-07-14 | 4596870 | 175693681449 |
| 2020-07-15 | 4590668 | 191230973306 |
| 2020-07-16 | 4594363 | 207183620373 |
| 2020-07-17 | 4600015 | 222986670837 |
| 2020-07-18 | 4600047 | 238869269670 |
| 2020-07-19 | 4602376 | 255042453799 |
| 2020-07-20 | 4601652 | 270784838036 |
| 2020-07-21 | 4593242 | 285777345125 |
| 2020-07-22 | 4589588 | 301097878239 |
| TargetDate | Forecast | Variance |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-03 | 4616993 | 10429486168 |
| 2020-07-04 | 4616980 | 22832049795 |
| 2020-07-05 | 4617378 | 36709335921 |
| 2020-07-06 | 4617825 | 51489634863 |
| 2020-07-07 | 4617023 | 66972973884 |
| 2020-07-08 | 4614876 | 83013200290 |
| 2020-07-09 | 4614267 | 99504132324 |
| 2020-07-10 | 4614000 | 116807675218 |
| 2020-07-11 | 4613718 | 134458691180 |
| 2020-07-12 | 4613443 | 152381939468 |
| 2020-07-13 | 4613160 | 170511459508 |
| 2020-07-14 | 4612184 | 188807663168 |
| 2020-07-15 | 4613014 | 207239788849 |
| 2020-07-16 | 4613430 | 225783851605 |
| 2020-07-17 | 4613524 | 243990793565 |
| 2020-07-18 | 4613565 | 262230837709 |
| 2020-07-19 | 4613583 | 280510212384 |
| 2020-07-20 | 4613594 | 298838534290 |
| 2020-07-21 | 4613602 | 317211017052 |
| 2020-07-22 | 4613608 | 335622835116 |
The below chart shows the forecasts for all models.