The following report contains details for forecasting of CIC. All models were foreasted on 2020-07-02.

Latest Forecasts (selected model)

The model selected for CIC is Seasonal ARIMA. This can be changed in the config file. The latest forecasts for this model are summarized below:

TargetDate Forecast Variance
2020-07-03 4614671 6730998745
2020-07-04 4613960 14854429596
2020-07-05 4614210 23814274801
2020-07-06 4614667 32928844309
2020-07-07 4612713 42098097353
2020-07-08 4608139 51279837256
2020-07-09 4606697 60465299848
2020-07-10 4605984 70344143344
2020-07-11 4605277 80292879422
2020-07-12 4604611 90280759301
2020-07-13 4603954 100275691584
2020-07-14 4601928 110273100953
2020-07-15 4603530 120271075180
2020-07-16 4604316 130269217694
2020-07-17 4604466 139616472067
2020-07-18 4604516 148900758173
2020-07-19 4604528 158149891552
2020-07-20 4604532 167392712187
2020-07-21 4604533 176633315011
2020-07-22 4604533 185873412376

The plot below shows forecasts with prediction intervals. The darker bands indicate an 80% prediction interval, while the lighter bands indicate a 95% prediction interval. The observed data is shown in black

Latest Forecasts (model averages)

The forecasts below correspond to the equally weighted average of all models and the best 2 models (ETS (non-seasonal), Seasonal ARIMA) .

Forecasts for Average of All Models

TargetDate Forecast Variance
2020-07-03 4618640 10123551798
2020-07-04 4612358 22281508656
2020-07-05 4609352 36034389884
2020-07-06 4605241 50513235592
2020-07-07 4594612 65201883421
2020-07-08 4588726 80189592162
2020-07-09 4594715 95611061629
2020-07-10 4602935 111554786867
2020-07-11 4604875 127686668300
2020-07-12 4608361 144060040373
2020-07-13 4607554 160173199433
2020-07-14 4596870 175693681449
2020-07-15 4590668 191230973306
2020-07-16 4594363 207183620373
2020-07-17 4600015 222986670837
2020-07-18 4600047 238869269670
2020-07-19 4602376 255042453799
2020-07-20 4601652 270784838036
2020-07-21 4593242 285777345125
2020-07-22 4589588 301097878239

Forecasts for Average of Best 2 Models (ETS (non-seasonal), Seasonal ARIMA)

TargetDate Forecast Variance
2020-07-03 4616993 10429486168
2020-07-04 4616980 22832049795
2020-07-05 4617378 36709335921
2020-07-06 4617825 51489634863
2020-07-07 4617023 66972973884
2020-07-08 4614876 83013200290
2020-07-09 4614267 99504132324
2020-07-10 4614000 116807675218
2020-07-11 4613718 134458691180
2020-07-12 4613443 152381939468
2020-07-13 4613160 170511459508
2020-07-14 4612184 188807663168
2020-07-15 4613014 207239788849
2020-07-16 4613430 225783851605
2020-07-17 4613524 243990793565
2020-07-18 4613565 262230837709
2020-07-19 4613583 280510212384
2020-07-20 4613594 298838534290
2020-07-21 4613602 317211017052
2020-07-22 4613608 335622835116

Forecasts for All Models

The below chart shows the forecasts for all models.